IMF cuts 2025 global growth to 2.8%. US Philly Fed non-manufacturing crashes to -42.7, worst since pandemic lockdowns – Citizen Watch Report

*IMF CUTS GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.8% IN 2025, CITING CENTURY-HIGH U.S. TARIFFS

— Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 22, 2025

US Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Apr: -42.7 (prev -32.5). 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/YwRqrzxYT4

— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 22, 2025

U.S. FACES “MANUFACTURED” RECESSION IN 2025, IIF WARNS

The IIF expects a policy-driven downturn—not a shock like 2008 or COVID—with GDP contracting 0.8% in Q3 and 0.3% in Q4. Growth for the year is seen at just 0.8%. Core PCE inflation could rise to 4.6% by year-end, driven in…

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) April 22, 2025

IMF slashes global US growth forecast from 2.7% to 1.8% with Global growth at 2.8%, reignition of high US inflation due to Trump Trade War
Hundreds of experts spent months trying to figure out how the global economy would fare in 2025 — only to scrap their forecast and scramble for a new one amid the Trump trade wars.

The new forecast isn’t a shocker. Analysts at the International Monetary Fund said trade fights will take a big chunk out of the U.S. and global economies this year.

The IMF chopped its growth forecast for the U.S. to 1.8% in 2025 from a previous 2.7%. U.S. gross domestic product has expanded almost 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024 — the two years preceding President Donald Trump’s return to office.

The world economy is projected to grow 2.8% in 2025, well below the 3.7% annual average from 2000 to 2019.

It’s not just the tariffs themselves, either, even though they could rise to their highest levels in a century.

“This on its own is a major negative shock to growth,” the IMF said in its new forecast.

What could also be very bad is all the uncertainty individuals, businesses and governments will have to cope with as they try to figure out the new rules of the road in a highly integrated global trading system that’s been tranquil for years.

“The uncertainty around trade policy is also a major factor depressing our outlook,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counselor at the IMF.

“Faced with increased uncertainty about access to markets — their own but also those of their suppliers and customers — many firms’ initial reaction will be to pause, reduce investment, and cut purchases,” he said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-and-global-economies-to-sag-and-inflation-rise-imf-says-if-trade-wars-drag-on-in-2025-6ffeaa1d?siteid=msnheadlines